Predicting How Each Team Will Do Using Math: Metro Division

Carolina Hurricanes celebrating a goal. Source: thehitimes.com (Photo by NHL via Getty images)

It is now time for probably the most difficult division. I’m going to be completely honest; this took me forever to make just because I had to figure out what team would do where. Now if you don’t remember, here is the equation again:

Predicting Winning Percentage for Current Season = 0.181 + 0.478 x Winning Percentage for Previous Season + 0.164 x Winning Percentage for Two Seasons Previous

And just to keep in mind, the only 2 teams who have not made the playoffs with an above .500 Point Percentage in the past 2 seasons are the Philadelphia Flyers and New York Rangers in 2021. Both of whom, are in this division. So, without further ado, let’s get into it

1. Carolina Hurricanes*

Mathematical Placement: 0.6198 Point Percentage (1st)

Yes, this was so close, I had to go down to the 4th decimal place. Nothing much has changed about this team since the ending of last season. The one main departure was from defenseman scorer Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton got 42 points in 55 games last year with the Hurricanes and put up 5 points in 11 games in the playoffs. But they were able to sign Sens defenseman Maxime Lajoie to a 1-year contract. Lajoie hasn’t really put up the stats for a high-level defenseman, but he has been with the Senators. Maybe all he needs is a good team and good training to help him. The best signing by the Hurricanes was 21-year-old Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Kotkaniemi has spent his, so far, 3-year career with the Canadiens and has gotten 62 points in 171 games. His Corsi in the NHL is 59.4 and has 12 points in 29 playoff games. I think he could really work well with the offensive powerhouses of Andrei Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho.

Goalies:

Frederik Andersen

Antti Raanta

The Hurricanes were able to sign Anderson over the offseason. Anderson has been the number 1 goalie for the Maple Leafs for 5 years and is now a great addition to the Hurricanes. The Danish goalie will get lots of practice as he will most likely be the starting goalie for the Denmark Olympic team. After that, he will hopefully come back and be a great goalie for the Canes in the second half of the season. As for Raanta, he still seems like a solid goalie and could be a capable backup for Anderson. Raanta is 20-19-3 in the past 2 seasons with the Coyotes, so the Hurricanes have 2 brand new goalies that could help the team.

2. Washington Capitals*

Mathematical Placement: 0.6197 Point Percentage (2nd)

Here you go, here is the other team that made me have to use a 4th decimal place for the Point Percentage. This one isn’t really a surprise. This team almost always seems to do well in the regular season. Just like the Hurricanes, nothing much really happened for the Capitals this offseason. As of right now, they only re-signed one player (Samsonov) and didn’t have that many FAs. Over the past 5 seasons, Alex Ovechkin has averaged 41 goals a season. Now some could argue that he won’t score as much this season because he only scored 24 goals last season. But he only played in 45 games because of COVID restrictions. That is about half a season. So, if we multiply 24 by 2 we get 48 goals, which is the same amount he scored in 2019-20. Backstrom led the team in points last year, which came as a shock to many people, but if he keeps this up, the Caps could be in good shape of maybe even stealing that #1 spot in the Metro.

Goalies:

Vitek Vanecek

Ilya Samsonov

Pheonix Copley

Now I’m putting 3 goalies because this could be a 3-goalie battle for the starting role, but it is definitely going to be a 2-goalie battle for backup. The Caps were able to get Vanecek back from the Kraken after the Kraken got Grubauer for the starting role. Samsonov was the backup for the Caps last year and went 13-4-1, but 0-3-0 in the playoffs. Now, the one no one thinks about is Phoenix Copely. Copely hasn’t played in the NHL since the 2018-19 season, but in that season, he went 16-7-3 with a 2.90 GAA and a .905 SV%. In the last 2 seasons, he played with the Hershey Bears of the AHL, where he went 27-12-10 in 46 games. He might not have the most experience in the NHL, but he could start in a few games this season, especially if someone gets injured.

3. Philadelphia Flyers*

Mathematical Placement: 0.524 Point Percentage (5th)

The Flyers have gained some great talent over the offseason. They were able to get Cam Atkinson in a 1-for-1 trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets where they lost Jakub Voracek. Atkinson had 34 points in 56 games last year and has been one of the best players on the Jackets for many years now. Another player the Flyers were able to get was defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. Ristolainen came from the Buffalo Sabres and has 199 assists in 542 games with a total of 245 points. He also has a really good Corsi Percentage on the power play as he has a 87.8 in 8 years in the NHL (all with Sabres). Joel Farrabe seems to be a very good player for the Flyers. In his 2 years in the league, he has 59 points in 107 games. We could potentially see a 50+ point season by this guy.

Goalies:

Carter Hart

Martin Jones

According to Hockey Reference, these are the only 2 goalies on the Flyers right now. So, it makes it easy for me. Last year was Carter Hart’s first losing season in the NHL (3 seasons), but he only played 27 games. So I feel like the Flyers could be really good if Hart has a great season. Jones has been with the Sharks for 6 seasons and is continuing to get winning seasons, even at 32. The Flyers have a solid goaltending core, they just need to build it.

4. New York Islanders*

Mathematical Placement: 0.584 Point Percentage (4th)

The Islanders have been one of those teams lately where they barely make the playoffs, but they make a deep playoff run. They have gone to the semifinals for the past 2 years and they have proved that they have the talent to do well in the NHL. Barzal led the team in points in the regular season, and the playoffs last year. The 23-year-old is proving that he can become a superstar in the NHL, and the Calder Trophy winner is helping this team develop into a potential cup contender. The Islanders are another one of those teams that didn’t do much over the offseason, until lately. They recently signed ex-Minnesota Wild, Zach Parise. Parise got 18 points in 45 games last year, his worst in his career, so it’s hard to see how he will really do. Maybe he will do better with a brand-new team.

Goalies:

Semyon Varlamov

Ilya Sorokin

Varlamov was one of the best goalies in the league last year (really helped my fantasy). He went 19-11-4 in 36 games last year. But Sorokin was also a great backup. In his rookie season last year, he went 13-6-3 with 3 shutouts. He also played in 5 games in the playoffs, going 4-1. So, even if Varlamov gets injured, the Isles should have no reason to worry.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins

Mathematical Placement: 0.617 Point Percentage (3rd)

Another surprising team in the number 5 spot. The Penguins seem to be the opposite of the Islanders. They seem to do really well in the regular season, but they don’t do well in the playoffs. Pittsburgh was pretty busy resigning most of their players, but one of the reasons they are low is because of Crosby. Crosby is expected to miss the first 6 weeks of the season due to wrist surgery. The next thing that worries me is the goaltending, but I’ll talk about that later. Nothing much else to say about this team though. The team is almost exactly the same.

Goalies:

Tristan Jarry

Casey DeSmith

The next thing that worries me is the goaltending. Both these goalies had a winning season, yes. But Jarry gave up almost 3 goals a game last year, and out of the 16 regulation losses the Penguins had last year, they lost by 3 or more 6 times. And DeSmith almost had a losing season last year. The next goalie they have is Louis Domingue, but he went 3-9-2 in the NHL last season. The team has good goaltending, but it’s just not consistent, or the goaltending you need to make the playoffs. Let alone have a deep run into the playoffs.

6. New York Rangers

Mathematical Placement: 0.527 Point Percentage (5th)

Artemi Panarin got injured late last year and was to miss the rest of the season. Problem is, I have not found any other information on that injury. So, if he will come back for the start of the season is unknown. K'Andre Miller was a great rookie defenseman for the team, and now the question is if he can keep it up. Ryan Strome got 49 points in 56 games last year; he will probably have to be the one that helps the team up offensively if Panarin can’t play. Also the young guns of Alexis Lafreniere and Kappo Kakko will have to step it up in these brand new opportunities that they are getting. These are the main names that can help this Rangers team even come close to a playoff spot. And if they can do it, is the question we are all trying to answer.

Goalies:

Igor Shesterkin

Alexandar Georgiev

The Rangers have solid goaltending. They probably have the youngest goaltending core in the NHL. Igor has been leading the Rangers all last year and has gone 26-16-3 in 2 seasons in the NHL. Georgiev has gone 43-38-9 with only 6 shutouts in 4 seasons. So the Rangers have potential in goaltending, they just need to figure out how to use it and turn it into wins.

7. Columbus Blue Jackets

Mathematical Placement: 0.469 Point Percentage (7th)

It is going to hurt me to do this as the Jackets are my team, but I have to. The Jackets season can be described in one word: rebuild. We are in a complete stage of rebuild that we have traded away almost every single one of our top tier players. With Atkinson and others leaving, the new face of the team is Jack Roslovic. Roslovic had a stellar CBJ debut last year and hopefully he can bring that momentum to this year too. The Jackets were very busy over the offseason, however. They got players like Jake Bean, Jakub Voracek, Adam Boqvist, and Sean Kuraly. The Jackets also have rookies Cole Sillinger and Yegor Chinakov coming and playing for them this year. The Prospect Showcase is going on right now and the game between the Jackets and the Leafs just finished up. The Rookies for the Jackets don’t look too bad as they helped them get a 4-3 OT win over the Leafs. If any lower team tier could come up and surprise everyone, I feel this would be the team to do it.

Goalies:

Joonas Korpisalo

Elvis Merzlikins

I can see this going either way. Both of these goalies are good goalies. Elvis went 13-9-8 with 5 shutouts in his rookie season (and almost won the Calder) and he went 8-12-5 last year. I feel Elvis could be a better goalie this year, especially with saying he wants to win the Vezina for late teammate Matiss Kivlenieks. Korpi also had a rough year last year, going 9-13-7. But with this almost brand-new team and a brand-new coach, anything could happen for this team this year.

8. New Jersey Devils

Mathematical Placement: 0.447 Point Percentage (8th)

The main player on this team now is 2nd year player Ty Smith. Smith got 23 points in 48 games as a defenseman as a rookie last season. They also have Miles Wood who got 25 points in 55 games. And then Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes who did pretty well last season. But that’s pretty much it. Nothing much else is on this team, besides the goalies.

Goalies:

Mackenzie Blackwood

Jonathan Bernier

Blackwood is a great goalie, he’s a great fantasy player if you need a goalie. He has had decent years in all 3 seasons in the NHL, and I could see yet another one. For the backup, I really didn’t know who to pick. Scott Wedgewood could also get the spot, but I’m not sure. But from what I can tell, it’s going to be a 1 goalie ride for the Devils.

Stats from: hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com, NHL.com