Predicting How Each Team Will Do Using Math: Atlantic Division

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens. Source: lastwordsonsports.com

So, I was looking around the internet and found this blog, Matter of Stats. It seemed pretty cool, and I stumbled upon the blog on how to predict a team’s winning percentage. So I decided to give it a try. But instead of using the winning percentage, we are going to use the points percentage. So, I am going to compare the mathematical winning percentage to what I think teams will do this upcoming NHL season.

So the equation that the person came up with was:

Predicting Winning Percentage for Current Season = 0.181 + 0.478 x Winning Percentage for Previous Season + 0.164 x Winning Percentage for Two Seasons Previous

First, I’m going to say something. No one in the last 2 seasons has made the playoffs with a point percentage of less than 0.500. However, only 2 teams have missed the playoffs with a point percentage of over 0.500. And those teams were the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Rangers in the 2021 NHL season. Where they both had a 0.518 and a 0.536 Point Percentage respectively.

One thing I am also going to do is predict the goalie roles. So, let’s go through each division and see how both of our rankings match up.

1. Florida Panthers* Mathematical placement: 0.622 Point Percentage (1st)

One of the main reasons that I chose this Florida team at first is the amount of depth they have. When I take a look at their roster, I see many notable names. Carter Verhaeghe, Noel Acciari, Patric Hörnqvist, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov, and Anthony Duclair are the most notable ones. They also have Owen Tippett coming back who got 4 points in 6 games in the playoffs last year. They also got Sam Reinhart in a trade with the Buffalo Sabres. Reinhart put up 40 points in 54 games last year which would help the Panthers. One bad thing is that the Panthers would have to give up young goaltender Devon Levi in the trade. Levi would help Canada to the goal medal with a 0.75 GAA in the 2021 World Juniors. That will be a key departure especially with goalie Chris Driedger being picked up by the Kraken. They also have Russian, Maxim Mamin coming back from the KHL. Mamin has only got 4 points in 33 games in the pros, but in the KHL, he has 108 points in 260 games. So, if he brings over to the NHL what he does in the KHL, he should be fine.

Goalies: Spencer Knight Sergei Bobvrosky

There’s mainly one reason I chose Knight over Bob to be the starter, and that was because of the playoffs. Knight proved to be a crucial part to the Panthers 1st round against the Lightning. Knight would only play 6 games combined in the 2021 season, going 5-1-0 (4-0-0 in the regular season). Technically, this is Knight’s rookie season and I think he can prove himself and be a contender for the Calder.

2. Tampa Bay Lightning*

Mathematical placement: 0.610 Point Percentage (3rd)

One thing that will really bite the Lightning this year is the departure of Yanni Gourde to the Seattle Kraken. Yanni Gourde was a key player in the Lightning 2 cup runs and he will be a huge part of the Kraken offense. One thing this team likes to do is surprise in the postseason. Tampa is 2nd in Point Percentage the past two years, and with the math is predicted to finish 3rd in the Atlantic Division. The main reason I put them below the Panthers is that they don’t have the depth that the Florida Panthers have. Yes, they have some amazing players, but 1 line won’t build an entire team. It’s like having Kucherov, Point, and Gourde on the first line and the rest of the team is ECHL players. You can’t expect that team to win many of its games. It just won’t work. But what I do think is that the Lightning will make a great push for first but won’t come out on top.

Goalies: Andrei Vasilevskiy Brian Elliott

Vasilevskiy will always be the starter for the Lightning, but the issue will be the backup. Elliott is 36 years old now and went 15-9-2 with the Flyers last year. McElhinney is old, and I mean old. McElhinney is 38 years old and is entering his 19th year of professional hockey. The other one fighting for this position will be Maxim Lagacé and Brian Elliott. Lagacé has been playing professional hockey since 2014-15 but has spent most of his time in the AHL. Recently with the Penguins organization, Lagacé has been a decent goalie. On July 28, 2021, Lagacé would record a shutout against the Buffalo Sabres in his only NHL game of the season. I think with a good team he could fight for that spot.

3. Toronto Maple Leafs* Mathematical placement: 0.614 Point Percentage (2nd)

The past few years, the Maple Leafs have done great in the playoffs, but have failed in the playoffs. The Maple Leafs were able to pick up goalie Petr Mrazek in Free Agency who will fill the gap of Frederik Andersen. Another piece of good news is that it seems forward John Tavares should be ready to play for the 2021-22 season after getting injured in the playoffs. Also, the Maple Leafs should be fine with William Nylander, 1. Stays healthy, and 2. Keeps up with the number of points that he has been getting. In the 7 playoff games the Leafs had last year, Nylander got 8 points, more than a point per game. Also, if defenseman Morgan Reilly keeps up with the points that he’s been getting, the Maple Leafs could be fighting for 2nd place.

Goalies: Petr Mrazek Jack Campbell

Mrazek will really help this team. He will make this Leafs team even better, maybe even give them a second-round appearance for once. Campbell played all 7 playoff games in the 2021 playoffs and put the Leafs into a comfortable 3-1 lead against the Canadiens before they eventually lost. But if he stays consistent, he could be fighting for that number 1 spot. Next is Joseph Woll. Woll is only 23 and has played 2 full seasons with the Maple Leafs’ affiliate, the Toronto Marlies. He is 18-23-4 with a 3.68 GAA and a .884 Save Percentage in 47 games. There’s obviously room for improvement but he won’t be the worst backup if someone gets injured.

4. Montreal Canadiens* Mathematical placement: 0.517 Point Percentage (5th)

The Habs made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final last season besides being down 1-3 in the first round. The Canadiens have good young talent with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield just getting started. Caufield is officially becoming a rookie this year and he is my top pick to win the Calder. Forward Jonathan Drouin was out most of the season last year due to injuries but he still performed. He would get 7 points in 10 games in the 2021 playoffs. One other good thing they have is Tyler Toffoli. Toffoli would get 14 points in 22 playoff games last year and did even better in the regular season. He could be a star player for the Canadiens if he keeps this up. Although, one flaw I see in this team is their defense. Their captain Shea Weber is injured which would probably bring Joel Edmundson up on the first line with point-getter Jeff Petry.

Goalies: Carey Price Jake Allen

I mean these are both no doubters. Price was solid in the pipes the entire year and Allen was a decent backup. But the goalie I can see stealing Allen’s spot is a young guy by the name of Cayden Primeau. Primeau went 11-4-0 with 2 shutouts in the AHL last year and is 2-3-1 in the NHL. With a little better stats, Primeau could be fighting for that backup NHL spot.

5. Boston Bruins Mathematical placement: 0.605 Point Percentage (4th)

The one thing this Bruins team lacks is goalies. As of when I’m writing this, the Bruins have yet to sign goalie Tuukka Rask. And to replace them are Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. They aren’t the best goalies, but they also won’t help the team significantly. Other than that, nothing much really changed with this team. I’m predicting that Taylor Hall will have yet another solid season with the Bruins, and as long as players like Pasta and Bergeron have good seasons again, this team should be decent. And yes, I am putting a team with less than 0.500 Point Percentage out of the playoffs. I think that the goalie situation will really hurt them, and even if Tuukka comes back, he had some injuries last year and didn’t perform the best. So, who knows if he is back to his original form.

Goalies: Linus Ullmark Jeremy Swayman*

There is a star by Swayman because he would go back down to the AHL if Tuukka and the Bruins are able to get a contract. Swayman is a decent goalie, but not enough for the starter role. Ullmark has more experience in the NHL with the Sabres, so I feel like that is why he will get the starter role.

6. Detroit Red Wings Mathematical placement: 0.448 Point Percentage (7th)

The biggest move that the Wings made over the offseason is when they traded Jonathan Bernier and a 3rd round pick for goaltender, Alex Nedeljkovic. Nedeljkovic had a 1.90 GAA and a 0.932 Save Percentage as he went 15-5-3 in the 2021 season. This will really help the back end of the Red Wings. Another good trade that the Wings made was to trade forward Richard Pánik and a 2nd round pick for defenseman Nick Leddy. The Wings are really trying to protect the back end and are hoping that the goals will come from the forwards. Well luckily for them. Leddy got 31 points in 56 games last year (2 goals, 29 assists), including 6 points in the playoffs (6 assists). One last great move they made was to pick up Pius Suter off of Free Agency. Suter got 14 goals and 13 assists in 55 games last year with the Blackhawks in his rookie season. This will really help the Wings as they were 30th in goals for last year.

Goalies: Alex Nedeljkovic Thomas Greiss

Alex Nedeljkovic is obviously going to be the starter for the Wings. But I chose Greiss as the backup because he has been with the Wings the past couple years. None of the other ones has a superb record and I think Greiss is the man for the backup job.

7. Ottawa Senators Mathematical placement: 0.472 Point Percentage (6th)

Not many names come to mind when you mention the Ottawa Senators. Main ones you could say are Matt Murray, Tim Stutzle, Colin White, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Connor Brown and Thomas Chabot. That’s one entire line, and it shows. The Senators have the 6th worst odds to win the Cup this year. Drake Batherson was a surprise player last year and finished 4 in points for the Sens. He was a good power play player as he scored 5 of his 17 goals just on the power play. So, if he continues to get better, he could be a premier player for the Sens. Other than that, nothing much has changed.

Goalies: Filip Gustavsson Matt Murray

You’re probably wondering what I’m doing, putting 2-time Stanley Cup, Matt Murray behind some guy you’ve probably never heard of. The main reason here is just the facts (it’s the stats). Gustavsson has played only a total of 9 NHL games in his career which all came last year. He went 5-1-2 with a 2.19 GAA and a .922 SV%. Fun fact, he actually had a worse record in the AHL last year. He’s only 23, and could be an elite goalie for the Sens. On the other hand, Murray did not do too impressive in his Sens debut season. He went 10-13-1 with a 3.38 GAA and a .893 SV%. This is the second season in a row where he has had a Save Percentage below .900. If this trend continues, he could keep getting worse and worse. Now I see why the Pens got rid of him.

8. Buffalo Sabres Mathematical placement: 0.406 Point Percentage (8th)

There’s honestly not much to say about this team. Based on this point percentage, the Sabres are predicted to finish dead last once again. Nothing has got better, it has actually gotten worse. The Sabres gave away their two goalies of Linus Ullmark and Carter Hutton and picked up two veterans of Craig Anderson and Aaron Dell. I honestly feel like the best move for the Sabres now is to trade away Eichel and start all over, go into a complete rebuild. I don’t expect a surprise from this team this year.

Now for the goalies I am going to do something different, I will have two categories, one that the Sabres will do, and one that I think they should do.

What they will do: Craig Anderson Aaron Dell Michael Houser

What they should do: Michael Houser Craig Anderson Aaron Dell

I put 3 goalies in this one because I couldn’t just pick 2.

Why will the Sabres do the top one? Because both Anderson and Dell are vets, and they are most likely going to do that. Dell has really fallen off and even played in the AHL last year. Anderson hasn’t had a winning season since 2016-17. Houser is a great upcoming goaltender; he went 2-2-0 last year and can prove that he can earn a starting role with a good enough preseason.

Stats from:hockey-reference.com,eliteprospects.com,NHL.com