Why is Goal Scoring on the Rise?

cover photo from: USA Today Network: The Hockey News

For the past several years, it has been very evident that goal scoring in the NHL has been on an increase. The big question is why this is happening. There are many ways that we can look at this, and I will be diving into multiple reasons why this could be happening. 

Better Technology/More Skill

It is no surprise how every year hockey sticks and players have gotten better each year. All the way back in the 1920’s players used a two-piece hockey stick, now hockey sticks are made of carbon fiber and with a wide variety of flexes, curves, handles, and brands. 

These new details in sticks and other equipment have made it easier for players to make better plays and have harder shots. 

This year, the hardest shot in a game, according to NHL EDGE, was by Jets defenseman Colin Miller, who shot the puck 102.59 mph in a game vs the Stars.

In 2021-22, the hardest shot in a game was 101.95 mph by Blues defenseman Colin Parayko. A difference of around 0.6 mph. Nowadays, it's more common to see harder shots in games. Both in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 season, we did not see a shot that was faster than Parayko’s shot of 101.95 mph, meaning we didn’t see a single shot hit 102 mph in a game those two seasons. This season, we had 5 shots that went at least 102 mph. 

All the data is just from the regular season. If we count the playoffs as well, there were only 4 shots from the 2021-23 that were faster than 100.99 mph. This season, we had only 2, but they were 102.73 mph, and 103.53 mph.

While shots are getting faster, there is no doubt that players are getting faster and better. Nathan MacKinnon led the league with 118 22+ mph bursts in the regular season this year. In the two seasons prior, only one skater had more than 80, and that was Connor McDavid with 81 and 89 respectively. 

We’re seeing this increase in skill even at the younger ages. Take for example Landon DuPont. The 14 year old defenseman from Canada who plays 18U Prep in the CSSHL. As a defenseman, DuPont had 62 points in 30 games in the regular season, and 16 points in 5 games in the playoffs. I have a friend who plays in that exact same league, and in the 1 game his team played against DuPont, DuPont had 5 points as his team, Edge School, won 13-0. 

DuPont was granted exceptional status into the WHL, only the second player ever behind Connor Bedard. 7 others have been granted this, like Tavares, McDavid, Ekblad, and Shane Wright. 

Now it's not like DuPont was the only player on his team. He was 1 of 5 players on his team who had a point per game or better. It's the fact that he is a 14 year old playing against 18 year olds. DuPont is one of those, once in a lifetime generational talents. However, it seems like we have had many of those lately in Connor McDavid, Connor Bedard, and could very much happen with Gavin McKenna in the 2026 draft. 

Players are much more available to better workout routines, more ice time, better coaching so they are able to get better much faster. 

We are seeing this in 4th line guys as well. 4th liners a couple years ago weren’t very valuable to the team, but now we are seeing 4th lines being very crucial to a team’s success every game.

More Success on Power Plays

Power Plays are one of the most exciting parts of hockey, to me. It's a great opportunity to score, and lately teams have been great at doing just that. 

The Power Play hit an all time low in 1997-98, but has been on the rise ever since. 

In 2022-23, the NHL had a Power Play Percentage of 21.31%, this year was a bit lower with 20.98%, but this is the highest we’ve seen since 1985-86 when it was at 22.1%.

This is also at a time where the number of Power Play opportunities has gone down since then, 4.62 per game in 85-86, to 3.02 today. 

The Tampa Bay Lightning had the league’s best Power Play at 28.63% this season. About 24.7% of their goals this year came off of the Power Play. The average team this year scored 52 goals on the Power Play, and they scored an average of 253 goals on the season, meaning the average team scored 20.6% of their goals on the Power Play, which is a huge percentage. 

A Decrease In Goalies

One of the biggest ways to measure a goalie’s talent is to measure their Save Percentage. While goal scoring per game was technically less this season, so was Save Percentage. 

Save Percentage reached its peak in 2015-16, with an average Save Percentage of 0.915, and has been on a decline ever since. 

There were no major rule changes in 2016-17, but in 2015-16 the NHL introduced the new 3 on 3 overtime system. The number of overtime games each season has increased. In 1997-98, the percentage of OT games was 25%, in 2022-23, the percentage has increased all the way to 69%. 

Most goals in OT happen on odd-man rushes, making it a great chance that the offensive team will score and the goalie will not save it. 

In 2005-06, the goalie’s pad size decreased, which led to an increase in scoring and a sharp decline in the goaltender’s Save Percentage. 

Another reason for the decrease in goaltending is just the increase in scoring chances for teams. 

According to NHL EDGE, the best goaltender in High Danger Scoring Chances in 2021-22 was Igor Shesterkin who had a .875 SV%, but this season it was Jacob Markstrom with only a .857 SV%. Players have found more ways to score in tight on goalies using dekes and other moves to be able to fake out the goalie. 

There is also the argument of where more teams=more players=more skill=more goals. As more teams keep getting added to the NHL, the number of players has also increased, which could be another factor.

I think it could be a combination of all of these plus a little more. There have been more active defensemen lately than in years past, just to name another.

Stats from: NHL EDGE, Hockey Reference