Predicting How Each Team Will Do Using Math: Central Division

Chicago Blackhawks vs Dallas Stars. Source: NHL.com

It is now time for the Western Conference. I will admit, the Western Conference won’t be as hard as the Eastern Conference was. In case you forgot again, this is the equation we are using for the teams:

Predicting Winning Percentage for Current Season = 0.181 + 0.478 x Winning Percentage for Previous Season + 0.164 x Winning Percentage for Two Seasons Previous

1. Colorado Avalanche*

Mathematical Placement: 0.645 Point Percentage (1st)

This should be no surprise to anyone. The Avs are coming into this season with the best odds to win the Cup at +625. The first line of MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Landeskog is one of the best lines in the league. I was fortunate to get all 3 of them on my fantasy team last year, and I got a lot of points from them. Still, 2nd liner Andre Burakovsky is a great player as well. Forwards Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher helped a lot with the team as well. Jost got 17 points last year, and Compher got 18. Compher has been able to get 30ish points in a little more than 60 games in a season before. I think he could do it again. Last year's rookie, Bowen Byram was a great defenseman for the Avalanche last year. He only played 19 games last season, but he could be a great player if he plays more this year. Last year he got 5 points in 7 games with the Canada WJC team. There is also Erik Johnson to help on the back end.

Goalies:

Darcy Kuemper

Pavel Francouz

I think a lot of people are worried about the leaving of Grubauer and Kuemper coming into replace him. But Kuemper is also a great goalie. He went 10-11-3 with a 2.56 GAA and a .907 S% with the Coyotes last year. But the two years he brought the Coyotes to the playoffs he went a combined 43-31-10. So, I feel that he could bring that back to the Avalanche roster.

2. Minnesota Wild*

Mathematical Placement: 0.602 Point Percentage (2nd)

The Wild have finally stopped the anxiety of Kirill Kaprizov. Last year’s Calder Trophy winner got 51 points in 55 games and helped bring the Wild within 1 game of advancing to the second round in the Stanley Cup Playoffs last year. Last year was helped by players like Kevin Fiala (40 points/50 games), Mats Zuccarello (35 points/42 games), Jordan Greenway (32 points/56 games), Joel Eriksson Ek (30 points/56 games), and Marcus Folingo (26 points/39 games). These 6 guys were the main core of last year’s Wild roster. Now this year they won’t have Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, but in my opinion, they don’t need them to be successful. Parise only got 18 points in 45 games last year and the Wild has proved that they can win without them. Nick Bonino got 26 points in 55 games last year and he could be a big asset to this team.

Goalies:

Cam Talbot

Kaapo Kahkonen

Kahkonen has only played 2 seasons in the NHL, but I think he is ready to maybe take on the starting role. He went 16-8-0 with a .902 SV% and a 2.88 GAA last season. Talbot went 19-8-5 with a .915 SV% and a 2.63 GAA. Yes, Talbot does have the better stats, but he also is older. He also played all 7 playoff games last year and almost knocked off the Vegas Golden Knights. I just think it will be a very good battle on who will get the starting role this season.

3. Chicago Blackhawks*

Mathematical Placement: 0.498 Point Percentage (7th)

This has to be the biggest jump of a team in my predictions. This team made so many great moves over the offseason that it shows that they are going all in this time. They picked up last year’s 28-point defenseman Seth Jones from the Blue Jackets for Adam Boqvist and some picks. They signed Jake McCabe who spent the last couple years for the Sabres. He only got 3 points in 13 games last season, but that was with the Sabres, so there is obviously room for improvement. They signed Brandon Hagel who had 24 points in 55 games last year. Kirby Dach will be back after only playing 18 games with 10 points last year. Johnathan Towes will play for the first time in over a year this year. They have Dominik Kubalik who got 38 points in 56 points last season, and 46 points in 68 games the season before. Just based off of all of these players, the Blackhawks could be a dangerous team this year.

Goalies:

Marc-Andre Fleury

Kevin Lankinen

Oh, and how could I forget about the biggest pickup of the offseason, Fleury. Fleury has proved to be a great goalie for the Vegas Golden Knights, and I feel that if the Penguins knew what he would accomplish, they would’ve kept him. Lankinen was last year’s starter, and he didn’t do too bad. He went 17-14-5 in his first season in the NHL. He had a 3.01 GAA and a .909 SV% but I feel like he wouldn’t be a bad backup for Fleury. Give him some time to adjust some more, develop him a bit, and he will bring over the stats he had from Finland (1.33 GAA and .946 SV% in 2017-18).

4. Winnipeg Jets*

Mathematical Placement: 0.542 Point Percentage (5th)

This year will be Pierre-Luc Dubois’s first full season with his team. Last season he got 20 points in the 41 games he played with the Jets after being traded early into the season by the Columbus Blue Jackets. He had a very good career in Columbus, getting 151 points in 234 games. Which gives him a 0.65 PPG during this 3 seasons with the Jackets. They also have defenseman Josh Morrissey which is a great fantasy guy if you’re looking for someone to pick up. They also have Neal Pionk who got 32 points in 54 games last year as a defenseman. Forward wise they have players like Kyle Connor, Andrew Copp, Niklaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele, and Blake Wheeler who all got at the top of the points for the Jets last year. One player who should be a help is forward Cole Perfetti. Perfetti got 26 points in 32 games with the Moose last year and got 111 points in 61 games in his last year in the OHL.

Goalies:

Connor Hellebuyck

Eric Comrie

Hellebuyck is a no brainer. He is one of the best fantasy goalies out there and has really proved to everyone he is one of the best in the league. Now the backup mainly went to Comrie because of NHL experience. Comrie is a great AHL goalie. And I mean great. Last year he went 3-0-2 with a 1.23 GAA and a .947 SV% with the Manitoba Moose. In his 1 NHL appearance with the Devils, he won it, but gave up 3 goals and has a .907 SV%. He is 3-5-0 in the NHL, but if you get this guy into form for the NHL, he could be a very capable backup.

5. Nashville Predators*

Mathematical Placement: 0.547 Point Percentage (4th)

The Predators had a decent number of key players as Free Agents this year. They had Mikael Granlund who had 27 points in 51 games last year. Who had 30 points in 60 games the year before, so a decent improvement. They signed youngster Dante Fabbro who had 57 blocks in 40 games last year. He also has a Corsi Percentage of 49.4 in his 3 season NHL career so far. Last year rookie Eeli Tolvanen had 22 points in 40 games and a total of 24 points in 47 career games. They also have many crucial players from last year: Matt Duchene (13pts in 34 gms), Mattias Ekholm (23pts in 48gms), Filip Forsberg (32pts in 39gms), Ryan Johansen (22pts in 48gms), and Roman Josi (33pts in 48 gms). They were also able to get Cody Glass from the Vegas Golden Knights who got 10 points in 27 games. All Nashville needs to do is put these scorers to use so that they can make a prime playoff spot.

Goalies:

Juuse Saros

David Rittich

Saros will now be the main starter for the Preds after Pekka Rinne retired. Saros has been a capable backup/starter for the Preds for the past 2 years. Saros went 21-11-1 last season and helped bring the Preds to the playoffs. He is hoping to do that once again. The Preds were also able to get David Rittich from the Maple Leafs where he had a total record of 5-8-2 with the Flames and Leafs last year.

6. Dallas Stars

Mathematical Placement: 0.530 Point Percentage (6th)

The Stars signed former Minnesota Wild defenseman Ryan Suter over the offseason in hopes to maybe make the playoffs again. They also signed players like Michael Raffl and Luke Glendening. Both are 32 years old, and both got under 20 points last season. The main powerhouse I can see for the Stars this year is Denis Gurianov. Gurianov is only 24 years old and got 30 points in 55 games last year, more than he got in 64 games the season prior. Gurianov has constantly been improving with every season he plays. Of course, Jamie Benn and Jacob Roberston will be keys to this season, but those are the only main forwards that I can see making a difference in this season.

Goalies:

Jake Oettinger

Anton Khudobin

Last season, we saw Ben Bishop get injured, and the Stars believe that he will start this upcoming season on the IR as well. Last season was Oettinger’s rookie season as he went 11-8-7 with a 2.36 GAA and a .911 SV%. Now those aren’t too bad of numbers for a rookie goaltender. He also played 3 games in last year’s World Championship for Team USA where he went 3-0-0 with a 1.37 GAA and a .934 SV%. Anton Khudobin was the starter last year because of Bishop’s injury and he went 12-11-7 with a 2.54 GAA and a .905 SV%. Just based on the stats, who do you think should be the starter for this season? For me it seems pretty clear.

7. St. Louis Blues

Mathematical Placement: 0.551 Point Percentage (3rd)

If any prediction is going to go very wrong, it is going to be this one. And I will say the reason why I think the Blues will finish this low later. The Blues signed 2 great contracts over the offseason, Pavel Buchnevich from the Rangers and Brandon Saad from the Avalanche. They also somehow signed James Neal. I guess because he’s been getting some decent points with the Oilers. Other than that, not a lot of other big names stand out. Other than the obvious Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug, Justin Faulk, and Colton Parayko. That’s just over one line. But if I’m going to say one guy who I think might do well for the Blues is Jordan Kyrou. The 23-year-old got 35 points in 55 games last season. His Corsi Percentage is very good too. But the problem is, one team can’t survive on only 2 lines.

Goalies:

Jordan Binnington

Ville Husso

Here’s the main reason why the Blues are so low: goaltending. In the starting role you have Jordan Binnington, who I wrote an entire article on. Binnington is a decent goalie but has continued on a downwards trend in the regular season, and has yet to win a playoff game since that Game 7 against the Blues 3 years ago. And then in the backup spot you have Ville Husso. Husso went 9-6-1 last season with a 3.21 GAA and a .893 SV%. So he may have got wins last season, but the wins he got were probably high scoring ones.

8. Arizona Coyotes

Mathematical Placement: 0.494 Point Percentage (8th)

I hate to do this to them, especially with their new jerseys this year (which are sick by the way). But the Coyotes just don’t have enough talent. They have players like Jakob Chychrun and Phil Kessel, but they just don’t have enough depth outside of their first line. Their first line would probably consist of this: the forwards of Phil Kessel, Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz and then Jakob Chychrun and Shayne Gostisbehere on defense. After that, there is not much.

Goalies:

Carter Hutton

Josef Korenar

The Coyotes won’t have that amazing goalie that they had with Kuemper anymore. Their starter will be Carter Hutton, a 36-year-old who only got 1 win with the Sabres last season. And their backup will be Josef Korenar, a 23-year-old who has only played 10 NHL games in his career with the Sharks (3-7-0). So yeah, not a lot to go off of.

Stats from:hockey-reference.com,eliteprospects.com,NHL.com