Predicting How Each Team Will Do Using Math: Pacific Division

Edmonton Oilers vs Seattle Kraken. Source: NHL.com

I’m cutting this one a bit close. Told myself I was going to do it over the weekend, so I didn’t stress about it, but then I didn’t do it. So now I have 2 days to get this done because the Golden Knights and Seattle Kraken play each other on opening night. So, for the last time, here is the equation that we are using:

Predicting Winning Percentage for Current Season = 0.181 + 0.478 x Winning Percentage for Previous Season + 0.164 x Winning Percentage for Two Seasons Previous

1. Vegas Golden Knights*

Mathematical Placement: 0.641 Point Percentage (1st)

The only one on this list that did not take a lot of thinking about. The Golden Knights have a lot of talent on their roster. They have Mark Stone who is a great captain for the team. They just picked up Nolan Patrick from the Flyers which will help their offense even more. They also have other players on offense like William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Max Pacioretty, Alex Tuch, Reilly Smith, and Chandler Stephenson. They even just got Evgenii Dadonov from the Ottawa Senators. So I think the Golden Knights are pretty much golden (haha get it?) on offense. They also have a solid defense with players like Alec Martinez and Alex Pietrangelo on the back end. Martinez led the NHL in blocks last season with a total of 168. So I think the Golden Knights will be a shoo-in for the 1st in the Pacific unless something crazy happens.

Goalies:

Robin Lehner

Laurent Brossoit

Things are looking a little bit different for the back stoppers as Marc-Andre Fleury is no longer a member of the Golden Knights. But that doesn’t mean that Vegas is hopeless for goalies. Lehner went 13-4-2 with a .913 SV% and a 2.29 GAA with the Golden Knights last season. He even won the William M. Jennings Trophy for least number of goals scored on him. You probably haven’t heard of the backup. For the past 3 seasons, Laurent Brossoit has been the backup for the Winnipeg Jets. In those 3 seasons, he has a combined record of 25-19-3, which is not a bad record I’d say. So I think the Golden Knights will be just fine on the backend.

2. Edmonton Oilers*

Mathematical Placement: 0.589 Point Percentage (2nd)

The Oilers first 2 lines of Zach Hyman-Connor McDavid-Jesse Puljujärvi and Ryan-Nugent Hopkins-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamato are one of the deadliest in the league. Mainly because of McDavid and Draisaitl setting up many goals. In the shortened season, McDavid and Draisaitl were top 2 in the league for points (105 for McDavid, 84 for Draisaitl). They also led the league in assists (McDavid: 72 assists and 33 goals, Draisaitl: 53 assists and 31 goals). Puljujärvi did under perform a bit last year but did average just under a point every 2 games. They also have one of the best defensemen in the league with Tyson Barrie (2nd in points for defensemen last season). His linemate, Darnell Nurse, averaged more than a point every 2 games. They are also going to have Duncan Keith and Cody Ceci on the 2nd line.

Goalies:

Mike Smith

Mikko Koskinen

Smith went 21-6-2 last season compared to Koskinen’s 13-13-0. Last season was Koskinen’s worst in the NHL with a .899 SV% and a 3.17 GAA. Smith was 3rd in the Vezina list last season with a .923 SV% and a 2.31 GAA. So you take your pick on who you think should be the starter.

3. Seattle Kraken*

Oh boy this will be fun. Because I spent 2 entire articles on the Kraken, I won’t spend too much time on this one. So instead, I will mainly be spending time on looking at their preseason results. The Kraken went 4-2-0 during the preseason with 2 OT wins, one against the Oilers, and one against the Flames in a shootout. Jared McCann and Jayden Schwartz would lead the Kraken with 5 points in 4 games. One bad thing is that Joonas Donskoi and 4 others will be out for at least tonight’s game with COVID protocols. That might prove to be costly for the team. One other bad team is that Yanni Gourde will be out for a while because of surgery. But, I think as long as the Kraken stay consistent, they can make the playoffs.

Goalies:

Philipp Grubauer

Chris Driedger

The Kraken were able to get a great pickup over the offseason with Philipp Grubauer. Grubauer was a great goalie for the Avalanche and could really help this Kraken team. Grubauer went 2-0-0 in the preseason with 1 shutout and a 1.55 GAA and a .939 SV%. Chris Driedger didn’t do so hot in the preseason as he had a 4.65 GAA and a .733 SV%. But hey it’s only preseason and time to improve. Driedger can be a great goalie if he brings his 14-6-3 from the Panthers last season.

4. Vancouver Canucks

Mathematical Placement: 0.477 Point Percentage (4th)

The Canucks have some good talent on their roster. They have Bo Horvat (39pts in 56gms), Quinn Hughes (41pts in 56gms as a rookie defenseman), Brock Boeser (49pts in 56gms), and J.T. Miller (46pts in 53gms). They also have the looks of former Coyote Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Connor Garland coming onto the roster which should help both the offense and the defense. Other than those guys and Elias Pettersson, there isn’t too much other talent. They do have Brandon Sutter, but he will be out for the start of the season due to an injury. The main thing that hurt the Canucks last season was COVID as they had to move MANY games to the end of the season. Hopefully, that won’t be a problem this season. So, maybe they can fight for a playoff spot if they are able to get some guys to do some heavy lifting for the team.

Goalies:

Thatcher Demko

Jaroslav Halak

Demko proved to be a solid goaltender for the Canucks last season going 16-18-1 in the 35 games he played. He also had a .915 SV% (career best) and a 2.85 GAA. The goals against average could use some tuning up, but I believe that he can fix that. He also got his first career NHL shutout last season! So good for him. On the other hand, Halak is getting old. In the 19 games he played with the Bruins last season, he went 9-6-4 with a .905 SV% (worst since 2012-13) and a 2.53 GAA (worst since 2017-18). So, I think Halak could be a capable backup, but I can’t see him being a starter.

Also they apparently have 2 Travis Hamonic’s.

5. Calgary Flames

Mathematical Placement: 0.502 Point Percentage (3rd)

The Flames have some depth, but not enough of it. I’m looking at their main roster, and I can see 2 lines that have the consistency that is needed to make the playoffs. Defense is like 1.5 lines. The Flames would do well this season if everyone puts in the work. They have the former World Championships MVP Andrew Mangiapane from Canada. I also have him on my fantasy team, so I’m hoping for a lot of points from him. I think he can really do it. It is his 5th year in the league and got 32 points in 56 games last season (he got the same number of points in 68 games the season prior). And then other than the obvious Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm, I don’t see much on offense. Defense will mostly just be Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson doing most of the work.

Goalies:

Jacob Markstrom

Daniel Vladar

Jacob Markstrom spent his first season in Calgary last season and went 22-19-2 in the process. But he did post his worst SV% (.904) since 2014-15. Vladar only has 5 games of NHL experience with the Bruins last season. In those 5 games he went 2-2-1 with a .886 SV% and a 3.40 GAA. So, I think it is pretty clear who will be the starter this season. I think he might be a solid backup, but not a starter. So, I think it is pretty clear who will be the starter this season.

6. Anaheim Ducks

Mathematical Placement: 0.435 Point Percentage (7th)

Out of the basement comes the Ducks from Anaheim. The Ducks have a lot of great young talent. Last year rookie Trevor Zegras got 13 points in 24 points last season, and I can really see him having another great year. They also have Max Comtois who got 33 points in 55 games in his 3rd NHL season last season. Max Jones who got 11 points in 46 games last season. Sam Steel who had 12 points in 42 games last season. And then Troy Terry. I watched him play at Denver at a playoff regional a couple years ago and it was fun to watch. Terry got 20 points in 48 games last year and has been improving every season. They still have the looks of Rickard Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg. Other than Cam Fowler, Jamie Drysdale, and Kevin Shattenkirk, they don’t have anyone else on defense.

Goalies:

John Gibson

Anthony Stolarz

Gibson has proved to be a great goalie for the Ducks the past couple seasons. He did go 9-19-7 last season, but with a not great team. Now I can see this team being bigger and better than the past couple years. This will help improve Gibson’s stats. Stolarz has been the Ducks basckup for 2 seasons now. He went 4-4-0 with a 2.18 GAA and a .929 SV% those past 2 seasons. Just with those stats, who do you think should be the starter?

7. Los Angeles Kings

Mathematical Placement: 0.464 Point Percentage (5th)

The one bad thing about the Kings is that they just announced that Quinton Byfield will be injured this season. The 2nd overall pick has only played 6 games with the Kings and is considered as a week-to-week by the Kings Organization. The Kings did bring in Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson over the offseason which should really help them. They also still have Adrian Kempe and Alex Iafallo to be a core for their offense. One other player they have is Lias Andersson. The 23-year-old got 8 points last year, but I can see some improvement for this season. On defense they still have Mikey Anderson and Drew Doughty. But they also brought in Alexander Elder from the Canucks who could really help them.

Goalies:

Johnathan Quick

Calvin Petersen

Quick is still proving that he is a solid starting goalie. Going 11-9-2 last season with a .898 SV% and a 2.86 GAA, he posted his first winning record since 2017-18. Now, I will say that the Save Percentage and Goals Against Average don’t look pretty, but he could do very well this season if those are solid. Cal Petersen is a young goalie who does need some work. He did great in his Waterloo Black Hawks days but is doing ok in the NHL. He has a 19-25-6 record with a .916 SV% and a 2.79 GAA in his 3-year career so far. Last season was his first losing season in his career and I could see him improving very well for this season.

8. San Jose Sharks

Mathematical Placement: 0.463 Point Percentage (6th)

The Sharks have some talent, but not enough to contend for the playoffs. They have Timo Meier and Matt Nieto who have done some great things for the team. Tomas Hertl and Brent Burns who are some veterans of the team. Other than Andrew Cogliano, that’s it. You can see they don’t have Evander Kane because of, reasons. They also do have Mario Ferraro who was a great defenseman for the 2 years he has been in the league. They also have a lot of rookies on this team. They have 4 rookies on the roster for opening night, so we will see how that plays out for them.

Goalies:

James Reimer

Adin Hill

The Sharks have 2 brand new goalies for the 2021-22 season. Reimer has played for the Hurricanes the past 2 seasons and went 29-11-4 in the process. Adin Hill has been the backup for the Coyotes for his 4-year career so far. In those 4 years he went 19-21-4.

And that’s it for this series of predictions. I cut it a bit close on time, but I was able to get it done, and that’s what matters. I hope you enjoyed this and enjoy this brand-new season! (CBJ!)

Stats from: hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com, cbssports.com